Title: The Politics Of Shortage And The Physics Of Scarcity: Analysis Of The Colorado River Basin Governance Through Policy Layering

Program: Public Policy and Administration PhD

Committee Chair: Monica Hubbard

Committee: Monica Hubbard, Emily Wakild, Luke Fowler

Abstract: The Colorado River Basin (CRB) faces a critical and widening disconnect between the water allocation logic based on the Law of the River (LOR) and the physical realities of chronic aridification due to ongoing environmental change. This dissertation examines how policy entrepreneurs navigated the rigid, path-dependent governance of the LOR in the CRB to secure adaptive policy change. Using an embedded case study approach that compares the Upper and Lower Colorado River Basins, the research applies a theoretical framework that extends Multiple Streams Analysis (MSA) through policy layering and the integration of three background factors: environmental change, economic pressure, and governance obligations. This analysis focused on the evolution of water management between the 2007 Interim Guidelines and the 2019 Drought Contingency Plans (DCPs).

This dissertation uses an embedded case study that treats the Upper and Lower Colorado River Basins as embedded units of analysis within the bounded case of the Colorado River Basin and applies a qualitative methodology to a primary database comprising 1,504 government documents and 72 video recordings spanning 1922 to 2024, with an analytical window spanning 2000 to 2024. The findings validate three core propositions. First, policy entrepreneurs were most successful when they framed adaptive change as complementary to the LOR, rather than disruptive. Second, successful policy change required multi-level coordination, often triggered by “micro-policy windows” opened through federal coercion and strict deadlines. Finally, policy adaptation in the CRB proceeded primarily through incremental layering, which added new rules to existing agreements and avoided the existential transaction costs of macro-level renegotiation.
Comparative analysis revealed that the Upper Basin’s regionalism, facilitated by the Upper Colorado River Basin Compact and the Upper Colorado River Commission, significantly lowered transaction costs of policy adaptation compared to the Lower Basin’s fragmented, state- based system, which was prone to localized veto points and collective action problems. The study concludes with policy implications for the post-2026 horizon, advocating for metric-driven hydrological triggers and the formalization of tribal roles in CRB governance to move beyond the “complexity trap” of incrementalism toward transformative adaptation.